The results for the February 2018 California bar exam are out, and the statistics are grim. Only 27.3% of those who took the exam passed, which is the lowest passing rate for any bar examination in California's records. The low passing rates are certain to reignite the debate over whether the California bar exam is too difficult, as a sub-30% passing rate is difficult for many to accept.
The results are not as surprising as they might seem, however. The first reason is well known. The February bar exam almost always has a much lower passing rate than the July exam. The reason is that most of those taking the exam in February failed the July bar, and those retaking the exam pass at a much lower rate than first time takers.
The second reason the results are not particularly surprising is less well known. The pass rate on the February exam depends to a large extent on the mix and the number of the retakers. Some are retaking for the first time and have a good chance of passing. Some are retaking for the second, third, fourth, or fifth time, and these groups have successively lower chances of passing. Thus, the passing rate on February exams actually is predicted fairly well by the passing rate on the previous February exam. When the pass rate is lower in one February exam, the next February exam will have a lower pass rate because it has a higher proportion of second (or more) time retakers. This relationship is seen in the following plot of February versus previous February passing rates.
As the plot shows, the previous February exam's passing rate predicts the current February passing rate reasonably well. The fact that the February 2017 exam had a low passing rate (34.5% compared to a 20-year February average of 38%) meant that the February 2018 exam was likely to have a low passing rate as well. The February 2018 passing rate does come in well under the prediction based on February of 2017, but this is likely the result in significant part of the backlog of retakers from exams prior to February 2017. This interpretation is bolstered by the fact that the February 2018 first-time takers had the same passing rate as February 2017 first-time takers (39% in both years).
Thus, although the 27% passing rate is disappointing and lower than expected, it does not indicate a radical departure from historical norms. We can expect that these results will weigh on February 2019, for the same reason. This bar exam rut is largely the result of a historical downturn in law school applications from 2010-2017 that caused a significant loosening of law school admissions standards.
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